Research

Publications

• Tripathi, J. S., & Rengifo, E. W. (2025). FinTech, Fractional Trading, and Order Book Dynamics: A Study of US Equities Markets. FinTech, 4(2), 16. [DOI]. [SSRN_WP].
  
• Tripathi, J. S., & Rengifo, E. W. (2025). The Impact of Earnings Announcements Before and After Regular Market Hours on Asset Price Dynamics in the Fintech Era. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(2), 75. [DOI]. [SSRN_WP].
  
• Salvatore, D., & Tripathi, J. S. (2024). Relationship between Trade and Growth for Developing Countries at Different Levels of Income. Journal of Policy Modeling, 46(4), 813-822. [DOI]. [SSRN_WP].
  
• Tripathi, J. S., & Rengifo, E. W. (2024). The Impact of Fractional Trading on Order Book Dynamics. Proceedings of the New York State Economics Association, 16, 95-104. [DOI].
  
• Tripathi, J. S. (2023). Trade-Growth Nexus: A Study of G20 Countries using Simultaneous Equations Model with Dynamic Policy Simulations. Journal of Policy Modeling, 45(4), 806-816. [DOI]. [SSRN_WP].
  
• Tripathi, J. S., & Rengifo, E. W. (2023). The Impact of Fractional Trading on Risk Aversion for Non-professional Investors. Finance Research Letters, 52, 103547. [DOI]. [SSRN_WP].
  
• Tripathi, J. S. (2016). Trade-Growth Nexus: A Study of G20 Countries. IOSR J Econ Finance, 7(3), 60-70. [DOI].
  
• Desai, N., & Tripathi, J. S. (2016). Rupee Exchange Rate Dynamics from 1993 to 2011: Study of Factors Driving the Exchange Rate. IOSR J Econ Finance, 7(2), 19-25. [DOI].
  

Working Papers

• International Trade and Economic Growth in the Era of Geoeconomic Fragmentation. (w/ Dominick Salvatore). Submitted, Under Review.
  Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between international trade and economic growth during the era of geoeconomic fragmentation (2017–2023), using a simultaneous equations model estimated through the full information maximum likelihood method. The study covers 132 countries (30 advanced and 102 developing) and also analyzes trade-growth dynamics separately for large and small economies. The findings confirm that trade remains a crucial factor for economic growth, but it acts more as a facilitator than a direct driver. In advanced countries, exports positively contribute to capital formation and growth, and industrialization contributes significantly to exports, while capital inflows have a negative effect on fixed capital formation. For developing countries, industrialization significantly boosts exports and in turn economic growth. The study highlights that the rise in protectionism and trade disruptions during the geoeconomic fragmentation period may weaken the positive impact of trade on growth. The results are validated through dynamic simulations, underscoring the need for strategic industrialization and trade partnerships to sustain growth in a fragmented global economy.
  

• Bond ETF Performance During the COVID-19 Crisis. (w/ Jay Surti).
  Abstract: Arbitrage activity by large banks (called APs) is vital to ensuring the efficiency and stability of ETF performance. Exploiting the availability of data for the period of the Covid-19-associated market instability, we analyze and contrast APs’ arbitrage activity in normal versus stressed market conditions for a representative database of passive, fixed-income ETFs. We find that APs trade ETF shares and bonds in a manner consistent with the arbitrage incentives predicted by theory, in normal times, for corporate bond ETFs, but not for broad market ETFs. For corporate bond ETFs, these incentives were dented significantly during March-April 2020, resulting in persistent, larger discounts-to-NAV of ETF share prices until the Fed’s policy interventions turned the tide. APs’ incentives to manage bond inflow shocks during this period constitute a key factor generating countervailing incentives, interacting with the liquidity of corporate bond ETFs’ asset portfolios. Our results add to emerging empirical evidence that APs do not trade at a scale necessary to quickly close out price-NAV differentials and also appear to trade in a direction that exacerbates share price discounts-to-NAV during times of stress. We find no significant differences between ETFs that are primarily held by institutional versus retail investors.
  

Work in Progress

• The Impact of Tariffs on Inflation and Household Budgets Across Income Levels in the US. (w/ Erick W. Rengifo).
  
• FX Markets Order Book Dynamics and Technical Analysis During the Covid-19 Crisis. (w/ Daniel Svogun).
  
• FinTech and Order Book Dynamics: Analyzing Liquidity and Volatility in Regular vs. Extended Market Hours. (w/ Erick W. Rengifo).
  
• The Impact of Fractional Trading on Risk Aversion and Wealth Allocation Behavior for Non-professional Investors under the Prospect Theory Framework. (w/ Erick W. Rengifo).
  

Theses and Other Selected Projects

• Topics on Fractional Trading and Trade-Growth Nexus, 2023 [PhD Dissertation]
  
• Predicting COVID-19 Cases Using Google Community Mobility Report, 2020
  
• Trade-Growth Nexus: A Study of G20 Countries, 2016 [MSc Thesis]
  
• Performance Analysis and Estimation of Production Function for Indian Automobile Sector, 2015
  
• Magnetohydrodynamics and Dynamo Theory, 2014 [BSc Thesis]